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The commodity cost ripple

A price move in one raw material doesn’t stop at the mine or the field. Pick a commodity, set a price change, and see how the cost pressure spreads through every industry and economy, traced through the OECD’s input-output tables.

Percent change in the commodity price

Everything below is the estimated effect on production cost (how much more expensive it becomes to make things), not on the final shelf price. The map shades each economy by its whole-economy average; the bars are the worldwide average for each industry.

World map of commodity cost pressure by country Countries shaded by the estimated increase in economy-wide input costs. A data table follows.

Industries with the biggest cost rise (worldwide average)

Specific industries hit hardest

    Estimated input-cost increase by economy
    EconomyCost increase (%)
    Source & method

    Model: the standard input-output cost-push / price pass-through model (Leontief price model, dp = (I − Aᵀ)⁻¹·dp₀; Miller & Blair, ch. 2). A price rise on a commodity’s extraction or agricultural sector propagates to every sector that uses it, directly and indirectly.

    Data: OECD Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Tables, 2020, public edition: 77 economies, 45 sectors. Coefficients computed once and shipped as CSV / JSON. The “today’s price move” button reads the current price vs its recent average from public FRED / IMF series.

    • Illustrative. Assumes full cost pass-through, fixed technical coefficients, and a short run; real pass-through is partial and lagged.
    • This 45-sector edition has no dedicated “copper” or “wheat” line, so each commodity is mapped to the nearest extractive or agricultural sector (crude oil & gas → oil & gas extraction; metals → metal-ore mining; grains & fibres → agriculture).
    • The map shows economy-wide average cost pressure (output-weighted across a country’s sectors); the bars show the worldwide average per industry.

    Licence: this page and its derived data are CC BY 4.0. OECD ICIO used under its public-edition terms.

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    Full dataset (CSV)

    Cite as: Datastripes, “The commodity cost ripple”, analyze.datastripes.com. Model: OECD ICIO input-output cost-push.

    …and that’s before customs duty

    Average applied import tariff, all products: World Bank simple mean, latest year available.